Bifurcation Analysis of a Mathematical Model for the Covid-19 Infection among Pregnant and Non-Pregnant Women
Keywords:Bifurcation analysis, Mathematical model, Sensitivity analysis, Covid19 infection, Simulation, Differential equations
A mathematical study and analysis of the covid-19 disease is essential in the control and eradication of the dreadful covid-19 infection. This research work is focused on the covid-19 infection among the women population. The women population was divided into seven compartments. These compartments were built into a deterministic model presented as a system of ordinary differential equations. Basic mathematical analyses such as positivity of solution, the disease-free equilibrium and the basic reproduction number, were performed on the model. The model assumes only positive solutions and the total population size is bounded. The next generation matrix approach was employed in generating the basic reproduction number R0. The sensitivity analysis revealed that among the most sensitive parameters of R0 are the effective contact rate for Covid-19 transmission, the modification parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to covid-19 infection by pregnant women, and the transmission coefficient of the infectious pregnant women. The bifurcation analysis revealed a forward bifurcation which guarantees the stability of the disease-free
equilibrium when R0 is lowered below unity. Numerical simulations, using Mathematica Version 12.0 package, are given to show the effects of the most sensitive parameters of the basic reproduction number on the number of infectious cases of covid-19.
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